From funeral to funeral

Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book, "Fooled by randomness" writes, "It is said that science evolves from funeral to funeral. After the LTCM collapse, a new financial economist will emerge, who will integrate such knowledge into his science. He will be resisted by the older ones, but, again, they will be much closer to their funeral date than he."

One and only one funeral comes to mind now - the sub-prime crisis, the latest funeral in a long list of never-ending deaths.

P.S. On a related note, MBAs did not cause the sub-prime crisis. We are just not that intelligent.

You've come a long way baby

It is often repeated in global business circles that when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. But have you ever wondered what happens when the US catches a cold? Judging from recent events, this is what precisely has happened. With the burst of the housing bubble, US has dragged down many other economies of the world. Even the BRIC juggernaut has slowed down.

When did the turn of events happen? When did sub-prime, which was a catch word in B-schools and a hot topic of discussion, suddenly turn into a monster? We have come a long way since last year. A lot of money has since flowed under the bridge. Last September, the sub-prime crisis had just reared its ugly head but no one could have predicted the level to which it has affected every one of us today. Governments are hastily organizing bailout packages for mopping up bad debts. Age old institutions are going off the radar. Investment Banking as a concept has been wiped out.

As far as India is concerned, the decoupling theory was badly routed. India has not been immune to the global hiccup. Inflation reached alarming levels, the pathetic levels of IIP has demoralized the industry and the stock market have seemed to lost all steam. The irrational exuberance which led the Indian stock markets to record highs till January has been squashed. The exuberance has gone; now only the irrationality remains. Newspapers scream valutions at 2005 levels, but who has the courage or the cash to buy today? Judging from the industry scenario, it seems India is heading for a recession with no brakes. And I'm on that train.

P.S. The above is not a rant, nor a crib. Just a dispassionate look on things which have happened and which are in store.

Is it time to worry yet?

An article I was reading on ZD-Net had this to say about the effect of the global financial crisis on Indian IT firms.

In fact, Premji, one of India's richest men by virtue of his share in Wipro, apparently practices frugality to the extent that he orders 'by-two' samosas in the office café. 'By-two' is a famous local habit, quickly adopted by newcomers, of splitting one order of anything (coffee to soup) between two people to save on costs.

Many of the now bankrupt firms had accounts with the IT giants for developing their IT systems. And since they are no more, the fallout is going to affect the IT industry as well. And here we are being complacent, having McDees and Coke Floats and Subways. Are we being smug about the whole situation? Are we choosing to hide behind a imaginary veil of hope? Has the time to start worrying come yet? Time itself will tell.